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5:00Actuarial Reserving: the Biggest Guess on the Balance Sheet
An insurer collects your premium today but pays your claim years later, sometimes after a lawsuit no one has filed yet. The single largest number on its balance sheet is a forecast of money it will owe for events that have already happened but nobody has finished counting.
When an insurer sells a policy, it knows the premium exactly but not the claims. Some accidents happen, get reported, and get paid quickly; others are reported late, and some, like an injury whose severity only emerges over years, take a decade to settle. The liability for all of these is the technical provision (or loss reserve), and on a general insurer it is usually the largest single item on the balance sheet. Mis-state it and the entire reported profit is fiction.
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